What is the impact of the economy on you and your organization? What are you doing as a result?

In response, I returned to a post I wrote about a year ago. While reflecting on the LCBBQ I formed the view that the argument I outlined then bears repeating now. Where appropriate I have updated the article to reflect recent developments as the Recession turned into Depression.

The dialectic I am presenting here can be summarized in the following manner: will the positive economic, organizational, and social value of e-learning outweigh traditional human responses an economic crisis? What strategies can we use to ensure the survival of and even the growth of e-learning as an industry in these changing times?

So what’s changed in the e-learning industry since the last recession in 2001? I’ve outlined some discussion points below:

1. First of all: Traditional business practice
2. Developments in Infrastructure & Hardware
3. The E-learning Hype curve
4. Refinements in Content Development Methodologies
5. The Rise if the Read/Write Web
6. The PlayStation Generation – Digital Natives in the workplace

Scroll down to find out more about each of these points.
–
Traditional business practice
Historically, when a slowdown or company rationalization occurs, the first against the wall are the folks in the PR, marketing, and training departments. Typically, individuals and organizations revert to previously-learned behaviors in tough times; this usually means going through the process of carrying out tried-and-tested, though not necessarily logical responses to the problems put in front of them. The rationale is as follows:

• Profits are down
• Revenue projections aren’t great for the next 12/18 months
• We need to cut our costs
• We need to keep the guys that make the widgets (we need to have product to sell)
• We need to keep the managers of these people (or productivity will go down)
• We need to keep Human Resources in place to manage everyone obviously (it’s just a coincidence that I – that is the decision-maker – work in HR!)

• What about those training people? High travel costs for the ILT guys, they pull people out of work for 3 days to go on courses. Large budgets spent on implementing and maintaining an LMS/LCMS, third-party e-learning libraries, custom courseware etc, but they do seem to add value to the organization. And let’s face it, they don’t really improve the quality of our product, because they never convince us with their ROI metrics…
• Outcome: tea and sympathetic chat, and the Training team get their pink slips / P45s.

Sadly, I reckon that this will be strategy undertaken by a significant number of organizations over the next year or so. However….

…and it’s a big however.

Let’s look at the evidence for factors that have changed in the e-learning industry since 2001 and the recession following the Dot-Com Crash.

Infrastructure & Hardware
More-or-less general availability of high-speed internet access just wasn’t there in 2001. To take the example of the company I worked for at the time, our high-quality courseware was developed in Authorware and Director and delivered to customers on CD-ROM for distribution via their intranet or accessed directly from the disk. Our on-line courseware was a ‘lite’ version of the CD material – not out of choice, but because of the limited functionality that could be provided to a user via a 56k connection.

Over-compressed images, poor animation, and very poor audio – hardly the immersive learning solution that e-learning flattered to promise at the time. Assuming the learner could access the content successfully, the chances were that the PC (for it was always a PC) that they were using to view their content was processing and displaying the date at a rate that we wouldn’t find acceptable on a PDA now (screen-size excluded). Pentium or pre-Pentium processors, 8-bit sound cards, 16 colors, 800×600 pixel displays. And so on.

In short, we could see the potential, but our imaginations exceeded the available technology.

The e-learning hype curve
This brings me neatly to the e-learning hype curve (see Figure 1). Kevin Kruse described 2001 as the year that

…brought the harsh, steep slope of unfulfilled promises. Several high-profile providers shut their doors while many more announced large-scale layoffs in the face of missed revenue targets and crashing stock prices. E-learning advocates retreated to the more defensible ground of “blended learning. This year [went] down as the Trough of Despair.

Figure 1. The E-learning Hype Cycle

I would suggest through familiarization and use, learners expectations are more reasonable about what can be achieved (and perhaps more importantly how it can be achieved through digitally mediated delivery). Given this environment, organizations are now more willing to invest in e-learning as part of their overall training strategy. But is it perceived as a necessity or a luxury?

A year ago I wrote that:

I can’t answer that question right now. I suspect that I will be able to answer it 12 months from now, because there will be evidence as to whether decision makers consider e-learning to be a core requirement that effectively meets organizations’ training needs.

In light of recent research by Bersin & Associates among others, it seems that The Powers That Be in organizations have judged online training to be found wanting, and are responding by cutting budgets and reassessing learning & development strategies, apparently by beginning to disintermediate training by using non-formal and informal knowledge transfer methods in place of ‘e-training,’ LMSs, and VLEs.

Content development methodologies
I would assert that there is a real opportunity for e-learning here (if L&D professionals are in a to position stand their ground). Without going into the history of this too much, the development of (relatively) easy-to-use authoring tools like Captivate, Articulate (and a whole raft of others), Rapid E-Learning development methodology and the disintermediation principle means that e-learning has fewer up-front costs associated with it than at the turn of the century.

Similarly, if it’s done correctly it can be argued that ongoing maintenance and support costs are lower than they ever have been. By developing content with smaller, more flexible teams, the value proposition of e-learning has been enhanced, and the total cost of ownership has been significantly reduced. Outside of e-learning, the take-up of podcasting and streamed media on sites like Blogger and YouTube demonstrates that this ease-of-use of tools and technologies has extended into the community at large.

The Read/Write Web
Who would have thought in 2000 that blogging, social networking, wikis and podcasts would be as big a part of life as they are now? At the start of the century, the Web (and e-learning) could at best be described as a half-duplex medium; it was pretty much all one-way traffic. The development of information platforms has facilitated knowledge-sharing, folksonomies, social interaction, and, key to all this, reciprocity.

We now live in a multiplex world of many voices and ideas, mediated by the internet. At the forefront in using these web technologies is the e-learning industry. By using these tools to develop content I feel we can demonstrate quite effectively that e-learning has a value now that it did not have a decade ago. I would assert that this is particularly true if you take a social-constructivist approach to learning. By the way, I’m happy to entertain debates about the role of formal as opposed to non-formal and informal learning in this environment.

The PlayStation Generation
Concomitant with the read/write web is the PlayStation generation that have grown up over the last number of years. In his seminal essay Digital Natives, Digital Immigrants (2001), Marc Prensky declares:

…students have changed radically. Today’s students are no longer the people our educational system was designed to teach.
Today’s students have not just changed incrementally from those of the past, nor simply changed their slang, clothes, body adornments, or styles, as has happened between generations previously. A really big discontinuity has taken place. One might even call it a “singularity” – an event which changes things so fundamentally that there is absolutely no going back. This so-called “singularity” is the arrival and rapid dissemination of digital technology in the last decades of the 20th century.

Today’s students – K through college – represent the first generations to grow up with this new technology. They have spent their entire lives surrounded by and using computers, videogames, digital music players, video cams, cell phones, and all the other toys and tools of the digital age. Today’s average college graduates have spent less than 5,000 hours of their lives reading, but over 10,000 hours playing video games (not to mention 20,000 hours watching TV). Computer games, email, the Internet, cell phones and instant messaging are integral parts of their lives.

Extending from this, there is a generation of workers who are comfortable with and practiced in the concepts and use of e-learning – take a look at the resources available on www.skoool.ie, an initiative for second-level students in Ireland. I was involved in the development of the first iteration of this site, and it’s changed a lot (for the better) since we took those first steps creating it 8 years ago. Similarly in third-level education, there have been significant developments in on-line learning, and I think that it’s fair to say that it has become quite embedded in the pedagogy employed by universities: tools like Moodle enable students to upload coursework, take tests, build their own knowledgebases and wikis, and have on-line discussions through a single point of access.

This generation is in the workplace right now. It will expect to learn new skills as their careers develop using the tools that they have always learned on in the past: that is, by using e-learning.

Conclusion
This is a blog entry, not an essay. But consider other factors including transport costs and training in the era of $100 a barrel oil and the value of virtual classrooms; the ROI of e-learning as opposed to traditional methods; even the impact of traditional ways of teaching on the environment (”e-learning” becomes “eco-learning” anyone or even ‘economical-learning’?). I think that if they are in a position to do so, learning professionals are repositioning themselves to re-use the skills they’ve acquired in different contexts – perhaps undertaking their activities from a different platform, or through working in a different domain of expertise.

Ultimately, I would say that all anyone can do at the moment is keep their powder dry and hope for the best in the short term, while preparing for what may be a completely different business environment when the green shoots of recovery finally emerge.

–

Now read on…

About a year ago, I began commenting on the affects of the current financial crisis on the e- learning industry; it’s been a while, so I guess that it’s about time I revisited the subject. In my post Recession and the Challenge to E-Learning in February 2008 I remarked that:

Historically, when a slowdown or organization rationalization occurs, the first against the wall are the folks in the PR, marketing, and training departments. Typically, individuals and organizations revert to previously-learned behaviors in tough times; this usually means going through the process of carrying out tried-and-tested, though not necessarily logical responses to the problems put in front of them. Outcome: tea and sympathetic chat, and the Training team get their pink slips / P45s. …I reckon that this will be strategy undertaken by a significant number of organizations over the next year or so.

Sadly, it seems that my prediction was correct.

According to a recent Expertus/Training Industry, Inc. report: for 2009 over twice as many training professionals who responded to their survey said that they expected budget decreases rather than increases. Forty-eight percent expect their budgets to decrease in 2009, up from 41% in 2008. Less than one-fifth expect their budgets to increase in 2009, down from 31% in 2008. Similarly, since 2008 budgets were first approved, far more saw decreases (38%) than increases (11%) in funding and capital.

These data are reinforced by the findings of a 2009 Bersin & Associates study: B&A’s Karen O’Leonard indicated that the U.S. corporate training market shrank from $58.5 billion in 2007 to $56.2 billion in 2008, the greatest decline in revenue in over a decade.

In a 23 January 2009 press release, Josh Bersin himself stated that

…to reduce costs, companies are switching from e-learning [my italics] to coaching, collaboration and on-the-job training methods

The press release also states:

Today’s business world demands a combination of formal and informal learning with an emphasis on collaboration, knowledge sharing, social networking, coaching, and mentoring. While formal, instructor-led training is not going away, it is becoming a smaller and smaller percentage of training budgets.

This shift in organizations’ thinking and strategy merits discussion in it’s own right, so I will return to the topic once I have given it more consideration.

However, I have to say that I’m not encouraged by the inaccurate terminology Mr. Bersin used in the press release: I want to know – how do Bersin & Associates define ‘e-learning’? Based upon the above statement, collaboration and knowledge-sharing in particular, but also mentoring, coaching, and OTJ training are not categories of e-learning.

I’m sure you have your own favorite definition of e-learning – I’ve included mine below – but regardless of how you define it, you are in the e-learning domain if the learning materials are

• networked
• delivered to end-users via a computer using standard internet technology
• focused on the broadest view of learning

By e-learning, Bersin & Associates of course mean “e-training” – those superannuated, expensive page-turner style self-paced courseware libraries provided by vendors like SmartForce and HMH. You may argue that I am merely fussing over semantics, and that such terminology is unimportant. Tomayto / tomahto.

When questions are investigated using quantitative analysis, the Scientific Method is being used. Contingent with that is a healthy skepticism of the assumptions and conclusions made by the investigator. This is the essence of progress, acquiring new knowledge, or correcting and integrating previous knowledge. To be termed scientific, a method of inquiry must be based on gathering observable, empirical and measurable evidence subject to specific principles of reasoning and criticism.

In this context I would assert that precise categorization of terms is an essential part of communicating meaning accurately. If you consider that e-learning is

The continuous assimilation of knowledge and skills by adults stimulated by synchronous and asynchronous learning events – and sometimes knowledge management outputs – which are authored, delivered engaged with, supported and administered using internet technologies,

(Morrison, D. 2004, p.4)

then we must say that the Bersin statement contradicts itself.

Based upon the Bersin & Associates data (see Table 1), what seems to be occurring is a contraction in the use by organizations of one e-learning modality (the self-paced page-turner – in a sense the methodology most aligned with traditional instructor-led workplace learning), and the growth or expansion of a range of other modalities of e-learning, based upon non-formal and informal structures, Web 2.0 principles, and the removal of intermediaries in the workplace learning & development supply chain.

Table 1 Distribution of training categories (after Bersin & Associates, 2009)

More…
_____________________

References:

Bersin & Associates (2009) 2009 Corporate Learning Factbook Reveals 11% Decline in Corporate Training Spending [Internet] Available from: http://www.bersin.com/News/Content.aspx?id=8438 Accessed 24 January 2009

Expertus (2008) Measuring Learning as Budgets Tighten [Internet] Available from: http://www.trainingefficiency.com/system/files/Survey+Results_Learning+Measurement_+Expertus_Nov08.pdf Accessed 12 January 2009

Frauenheim, E. (2009) Training Is Taking a Beating in Recession, Studies Find Workforce Management. [Internet] Available from: http://www.workforce.com/section/00/article/26/12/95.php Accessed 23 January 2009

Morrison, D. (2004) E-Learning Strategies: how to get implementation and delivery right first time Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The author discusses how

the cult of ‘leadership’ contributed to megalomaniac behaviour that ultimately led to the financial crisis… All of this leadership lark is quite recent. For years we got by with management training, good old sensible stuff about being nice, clear and organised. Then, around the Millennium, the training world went all evangelical about ‘Leadership’.
Now the last thing you want to do with a bloated ego is feed it a diet of hubris. These guys […] think they’re omniscient and omnipotent.

Mr. Clark provides a well-structured, comprehensive, and frequently hilarious analysis of the snake oil of “leadership” and those who subscribe to it.

While I don’t have time to discuss this in more detail, think about the subject in the context of Peter Senge’s notion of learning organisations and systems thinking.

_______________

References:

Clark, D. (2008) Leadership training – cause of credit crunch? [Internet] Available from: http://donaldclarkplanb.blogspot.com/2008/11/leadership-training-cause-of-credit.html Accessed 12 December 2008

–

Intrigued? Now read on…

Back in February this year, I wrote the first of my occasional series on Recession and the challenge to e-learning; in that first piece, I concluded by suggesting that

in the era of $100 a barrel oil and the value of virtual classrooms; the ROI of e-learning as opposed to traditional methods; even the impact of traditional ways of teaching on the environment (”e-learning” becomes “eco-learning” anyone?).

Based on an announcement made last Thursday 10th September 2008, I can now assert that we are beginning to see that there is validity in this conclusion. Based on the level of investment one e-learning enterprise has committed to developing the industry in the medium- to long term, the market in now in a place to support the proposition that the ROI on e-learning makes sense, and generates profit.

E-learning giant Houghton Mifflin Harcourt (HMH) – formerly known as Riverdeep – is to create 450 jobs at a new R&D headquarters in Dublin. Riverdeep had its origins in Dublin in 1995 and under the leadership of Barry O’Callaghan became a global name in the e-learning K-12 market space. As an educational publisher, HMH has over 100,000 customers, generating approximately US$2.5bn in annual revenues, profits in the region of US$1bn, and 50 per cent market share of the US K-12 market, the world’s largest education market.

HMH is to establish its global e-learning R&D centre in the greater Dublin area, creating 450 “high-value” jobs over the next five years.

Fiona O’Carroll, senior vice-president, Digital Products R&D at HMH confirmed the Irish Government’s vision to create a knowledge economy by investing in people, research and innovation was a key factor in the company’s decision.

The new R&D centre will be a focal point for e-learning and educational innovation. Employees, partner companies and collaborating universities will be attracted by the quality of research, people, innovation and commercialisation activity in the centre.

The Centre will involve establishing a globally networked team in Ireland with team members and innovation partners based in the US and around the globe. The company said these jobs should be very attractive to seasoned technology professionals, engineering and technology graduates, highly creative thinkers and innovators in the e-learning space.

As I’ve said in the past, Ireland has a vibrant technology and knowledge-based industrial economy, and one of the domains we excel in, is in e-learning – I guess most people in the industry have heard of SmartForce and Electric Paper, for example. These large companies notwithstanding, there are over fifty ‘other’ e-learning development houses in the country. Not bad for a country with a population of under 5 million people.

In my view, this investment will prove to be a game-changer. As it is, you could say that HMH are the only game in (e-learning) town – if they manage the innovations and outputs afforded by this R&D centre correctly, HMH will grow to become the Google of e-learning. Indeed, the Google approach (especially the famed “20 per cent time”) is a perfect model for any knowledge-based organization that wants to stimulate growth through innovative new products invented and developed by their own subject matter experts. Similarly, this R&D centre will provide the organization with the potential benefits of having an audience for life: if HMH products have the skill and facility to instil the joy of learning in the kids that they currently provide e-learning solutions for, they will have an audience for life, given that these Digital Natives (click on the link for Marc Prensky’s seminal article) will grow up associating the brand with discovering knowledge and the fun of learning. In essence, we can say that the company has the potential to mould a whole generation of learners, which is an extraordinary business opportunity, but also a huge responsibility.

Do I now hear the distant trumpet of an approaching elephant?

I do…

Just an observation really. Rumours of this investment have on the jungle telegraph here in Ireland for some time now, and I was originally going to post on this topic last Thursday (the day of the announcement).

An African elephant (sans room)

I held back, because I wanted to see what reaction would come for the Irish L&D and e-learning blogosphere. I’m disappointed to say that no-one has posted a reaction to the largest investment in their industry, ever.

I’m sure people are still formulating their thoughts – I for one want to read how others in the e-learning industry here in Ireland are responding to this investment.

_____________

References:

HMH to Create 450 Jobs and Base Global R&D Headquarters in Dublin. Enterprise Ireland Press Release. [Internet] Available from: http://www.enterprise-ireland.com/eicms/interiorpage.aspx?NRMODE=Published&NRORIGINALURL=%2FNews%2FPress%2BReleases%2F2008%2FPressSep102008.htm&NRNODEGUID={077DB63F-4925-4D96-BEB3-364BF11C8EB1}&NRCACHEHINT=Guest

[Accessed 10th September 2008]

Ireland wins €350m HMH deal after tough worldwide battle. Irish Independent. [Internet] Available from: http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/ireland-wins-8364350m-hmh-deal–after-tough-worldwide-battle-1473370.html

[Accessed 10th September 2008]

–

Intrigued? Now read on…

Back in February this year, I wrote the first of my occasional series on Recession and the challenge to e-learning; in that first piece, I concluded by suggesting that

in the era of $100 a barrel oil and the value of virtual classrooms; the ROI of e-learning as opposed to traditional methods; even the impact of traditional ways of teaching on the environment (”e-learning” becomes “eco-learning” anyone?).

Based on an announcement made last Thursday 10th September 2008, I can now assert that we are beginning to see that there is validity in this conclusion. Based on the level of investment one e-learning enterprise has committed to developing the industry in the medium- to long term, the market in now in a place to support the proposition that the ROI on e-learning makes sense, and generates profit.

E-learning giant Houghton Mifflin Harcourt (HMH) – formerly known as Riverdeep – is to create 450 jobs at a new R&D headquarters in Dublin. Riverdeep had its origins in Dublin in 1995 and under the leadership of Barry O’Callaghan became a global name in the e-learning K-12 market space. As an educational publisher, HMH has over 100,000 customers, generating approximately US$2.5bn in annual revenues, profits in the region of US$1bn, and 50 per cent market share of the US K-12 market, the world’s largest education market.

HMH is to establish its global e-learning R&D centre in the greater Dublin area, creating 450 “high-value” jobs over the next five years.

Fiona O’Carroll, senior vice-president, Digital Products R&D at HMH confirmed the Irish Government’s vision to create a knowledge economy by investing in people, research and innovation was a key factor in the company’s decision.

The new R&D centre will be a focal point for e-learning and educational innovation. Employees, partner companies and collaborating universities will be attracted by the quality of research, people, innovation and commercialisation activity in the centre.

The Centre will involve establishing a globally networked team in Ireland with team members and innovation partners based in the US and around the globe. The company said these jobs should be very attractive to seasoned technology professionals, engineering and technology graduates, highly creative thinkers and innovators in the e-learning space.

As I’ve said in the past, Ireland has a vibrant technology and knowledge-based industrial economy, and one of the domains we excel in, is in e-learning – I guess most people in the industry have heard of SmartForce and Electric Paper, for example. These large companies notwithstanding, there are over fifty ‘other’ e-learning development houses in the country. Not bad for a country with a population of under 5 million people.

In my view, this investment will prove to be a game-changer. As it is, you could say that HMH are the only game in (e-learning) town – if they manage the innovations and outputs afforded by this R&D centre correctly, HMH will grow to become the Google of e-learning. Indeed, the Google approach (especially the famed “20 per cent time”) is a perfect model for any knowledge-based organization that wants to stimulate growth through innovative new products invented and developed by their own subject matter experts. Similarly, this R&D centre will provide the organization with the potential benefits of having an audience for life: if HMH products have the skill and facility to instil the joy of learning in the kids that they currently provide e-learning solutions for, they will have an audience for life, given that these Digital Natives (click on the link for Marc Prensky’s seminal article) will grow up associating the brand with discovering knowledge and the fun of learning. In essence, we can say that the company has the potential to mould a whole generation of learners, which is an extraordinary business opportunity, but also a huge responsibility.

Do I now hear the distant trumpet of an approaching elephant?

I do…

Just an observation really. Rumours of this investment have on the jungle telegraph here in Ireland for some time now, and I was originally going to post on this topic last Thursday (the day of the announcement).

An African elephant (sans room)

I held back, because I wanted to see what reaction would come for the Irish L&D and e-learning blogosphere. I’m disappointed to say that no-one has posted a reaction to the largest investment in their industry, ever.

I’m sure people are still formulating their thoughts – I for one want to read how others in the e-learning industry here in Ireland are responding to this investment.

_____________

References:

HMH to Create 450 Jobs and Base Global R&D Headquarters in Dublin. Enterprise Ireland Press Release. [Internet] Available from: http://www.enterprise-ireland.com/eicms/interiorpage.aspx?NRMODE=Published&NRORIGINALURL=%2FNews%2FPress%2BReleases%2F2008%2FPressSep102008.htm&NRNODEGUID={077DB63F-4925-4D96-BEB3-364BF11C8EB1}&NRCACHEHINT=Guest

[Accessed 10th September 2008]

Ireland wins €350m HMH deal after tough worldwide battle. Irish Independent. [Internet] Available from: http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/ireland-wins-8364350m-hmh-deal–after-tough-worldwide-battle-1473370.html

[Accessed 10th September 2008]

–

Straitly was she in need of employment, forasmuch as without an income, the door of her house would be riven and the walls of her home would fall down flat, and the silver, and the gold, and the vessels of brass and of iron, they would take from the treasury of the house.

And it came to be that by the power of the mighty word processor and the e-mail, posted she her résumé unto many an organization, including unto those that call themselves Financial Institutions.

And so it was that with mighty trumpets the Tribe of Human Resources responded to her. And they declared unto her that without a special power called “financial experience” she was as a beggar cast into the night, and they smote her down into the good earth with the jawbone of the Ox .

And she was afraid.

And so it was that she said this tale unto me, and she beseeched unto me “What is this Financial Experience in Fund Management that they speak of?”

And I said unto her:

“Verily, fear not these Children of the Almighty Dollar!

For it has come to pass that they are responsible for many a woe among the people, including the fearsome Enron Scandal, and the lending of the silver and the gold in the Sub-Prime Sector, and the Dealing upon the Inside, and the Credit Crunch, and Bear Stearns and Northern Rock shall be as naught. The Prince of Citigroup and the chief of the tribe of Merrill Lynch will rightly fall upon their swords, and they will be mocked when they speak of Golden Parachutes, for they spoke not of fiscal rectitude, and the Walls of The Street did tremble.

Believe ye in the power of Education and Technology, and the Learning that is called ‘E’!

For in days to come, the Children of the Almighty Dollar will see that they too are mere knowledge workers, like unto all others in different sectors of the economy.

I say unto thee, they will cry across the land:

“Oh woe are we who were blind! We could not see that learning and development skills are cross-discipline! And frankly we could have done with a bit of expertise from outside the narrow confines of the financial world considering the fix we’re in! We thought ourselves as blessèd among ordinary knowledge workers, with skills in software and pharmaceuticals and such.

Oh! Vanity! Pride! In our ignorance of the meaning of the global economy we have been led astray from the path of righteousness!”

For during the Boom Years they did utter nonsense and PR, and the diviners they call stockbrokers saw lies; the analysts told false dreams, and gave empty consolation.

Therefore the People of Finance wander like sheep; they are afflicted for want of a shepherd. Go unto them with thine expertise in workplace learning and say unto them “WISDOM AND KNOWLEDGE SHALL BE THE STABILITY OF THY TIMES!”

And nail ye them to the wall with high Per Diem consultancy rates, for revenge is sweet.

Here Endeth The Lesson.

–

Straitly was she in need of employment, forasmuch as without an income, the door of her house would be riven and the walls of her home would fall down flat, and the silver, and the gold, and the vessels of brass and of iron, they would take from the treasury of the house.

And it came to be that by the power of the mighty word processor and the e-mail, posted she her résumé unto many an organization, including unto those that call themselves Financial Institutions.

And so it was that with mighty trumpets the Tribe of Human Resources responded to her. And they declared unto her that without a special power called “financial experience” she was as a beggar cast into the night, and they smote her down into the good earth with the jawbone of the Ox .

And she was afraid.

And so it was that she said this tale unto me, and she beseeched unto me “What is this Financial Experience in Fund Management that they speak of?”

And I said unto her:

“Verily, fear not these Children of the Almighty Dollar!

For it has come to pass that they are responsible for many a woe among the people, including the fearsome Enron Scandal, and the lending of the silver and the gold in the Sub-Prime Sector, and the Dealing upon the Inside, and the Credit Crunch, and Bear Stearns and Northern Rock shall be as naught. The Prince of Citigroup and the chief of the tribe of Merrill Lynch will rightly fall upon their swords, and they will be mocked when they speak of Golden Parachutes, for they spoke not of fiscal rectitude, and the Walls of The Street did tremble.

Believe ye in the power of Education and Technology, and the Learning that is called ‘E’!

For in days to come, the Children of the Almighty Dollar will see that they too are mere knowledge workers, like unto all others in different sectors of the economy.

I say unto thee, they will cry across the land:

“Oh woe are we who were blind! We could not see that learning and development skills are cross-discipline! And frankly we could have done with a bit of expertise from outside the narrow confines of the financial world considering the fix we’re in! We thought ourselves as blessèd among ordinary knowledge workers, with skills in software and pharmaceuticals and such.

Oh! Vanity! Pride! In our ignorance of the meaning of the global economy we have been led astray from the path of righteousness!”

For during the Boom Years they did utter nonsense and PR, and the diviners they call stockbrokers saw lies; the analysts told false dreams, and gave empty consolation.

Therefore the People of Finance wander like sheep; they are afflicted for want of a shepherd. Go unto them with thine expertise in workplace learning and say unto them “WISDOM AND KNOWLEDGE SHALL BE THE STABILITY OF THY TIMES!”

And nail ye them to the wall with high Per Diem consultancy rates, for revenge is sweet.

Here Endeth The Lesson.

–

Straitly was she in need of employment, forasmuch as without an income, the door of her house would be riven and the walls of her home would fall down flat, and the silver, and the gold, and the vessels of brass and of iron, they would take from the treasury of the house.

And it came to be that by the power of the mighty word processor and the e-mail, posted she her résumé unto many an organization, including unto those that call themselves Financial Institutions.

And so it was that with mighty trumpets the Tribe of Human Resources responded to her. And they declared unto her that without a special power called “financial experience” she was as a beggar cast into the night, and they smote her down into the good earth with the jawbone of the Ox .

And she was afraid.

And so it was that she said this tale unto me, and she beseeched unto me “What is this Financial Experience in Fund Management that they speak of?”

And I said unto her:

“Verily, fear not these Children of the Almighty Dollar!

For it has come to pass that they are responsible for many a woe among the people, including the fearsome Enron Scandal, and the lending of the silver and the gold in the Sub-Prime Sector, and the Dealing upon the Inside, and the Credit Crunch, and Bear Stearns and Northern Rock shall be as naught. The chiefs of the tribes of Merrill Lynch and Citigroup will rightly fall upon their swords, and they will be mocked when they speak of Golden Parachutes, for they spoke not of fiscal rectitude, and the Walls of The Street did tremble.

There will be the taking away of the honey and the wheat and the barley, and the oxen, and the axe and the plough that is called Repossession. For they that giveth, also they taketh away.

Believe ye in the power of Education and Technology, and the Learning that is called ‘E’!

For in days to come, the Children of the Almighty Dollar will see that they too are mere knowledge workers, unto like all others in different sectors of the economy.

I say unto thee, they will cry across the land:

“Oh woe are we who were blind! We could not see that learning and development skills are cross-discipline! And frankly we could have done with a bit of expertise from outside the narrow confines of the financial world! We thought ourselves as blessèd among ordinary knowledge workers, with skills in software and pharmaceuticals and such.

Oh! Vanity! Pride! In our ignorance of the meaning of the global economy we have been led astray from the path of righteousness!”

For during the Boom Years they did utter nonsense and PR, and the diviners they call stockbrokers saw lies; the analysts told false dreams, and gave empty consolation.

Therefore the People of Finance wander like sheep; they are afflicted for want of a shepherd. Go unto them with thine expertise in workplace learning and say unto them “WISDOM AND KNOWLEDGE SHALL BE THE STABILITY OF THY TIMES!”

And nail ye them to the wall with high Per Diem consultancy rates, for revenge is sweet.

Here Endeth The Lesson.

–

Now read on…

Today I’m returning to one of my occasional topics – tracking the state of the e-learning industry through the economic downturn / recession of 2008. In my first post on this topic I outlined my views on potential scenarios and described what in my view differentiated this depressed market from the post- Dot Com era. Following up on that, I presented the end-of-year financials of two of the biggest organizations in the industry, and potential difficulties they may face in 08H2.

Today, I’m investigating stakeholder sentiment (in the form of opinions from learning professionals as presented in their blogs, columns, and forums). And the question I have to ask is “Why don’t people feel that the hammer will fall (sic) on the e-learning industry this time around?”

The prevailing feeling seems to be one of optimism, and that this is in fact a time of opportunity for the industry:

Sam S. Adkins, Chief Research Officer of Ambient Insight suggests that

According to a new longitudinal study by Ambient Insight on the private investment trends in the learning technology industry, capital is flowing at the highest rate since the last recession…

• Funding in the first quarter of 2008 has reached 64% of the 2007 total and now totals more than all the investments made in the entire year of 2006
• Investment in Self-paced eLearning products designed for the corporate buying segment dominated between 1999 and 2003, but funding for these types of products has dropped dramatically in the last four years and now trails other product types
• Digital reference-ware, Collaboration-based Learning, social network-based learning (peer-generated), and learning services firms, respectively, are now attracting the largest investments
• Funding for Simulation-based Learning and Game-based Learning products, particularly virtual world platforms designed for young children, has increased significantly in 2007. This trend continues in the first quarter of 2008 and this product type is now on track to outpace investment in Self-paced eLearning

At G-Cube Solutions, Ankit Jain asserts:

…[the] growth of e-Learning is the function of two important factors. Factor Number One is the competitive cost advantage and Second Factor is the enabling qualities such as enhanced reach and learning impact.

In a ‘normal’ US economy, he predicts that

[e-learning] not only substitutes class room training but achieves better results to the learners.

Should a recession develop, he considers

Lower revenues and lower profits for US corporations certainly means cut in L&D spending. However, I have strong views that e-Learning in relative terms is likely to benefit from recessionary conditions as it is a proven cost friendly alternative to a traditional class room. … In my views the share of e-Learning hours will increase to over 40-50% from current 30% due to two factors – lowered base of number of training hours (as expected during recession) and increased share of e-Learning as such. … [the] e-Learning industry in general has a great future irrespective of US recession.

On Learning Town, Brett Andersen of The Bank of America says

With financial cutbacks come greater restrictions, such as hiring freezes, significantly lower budgets, etc. And with less money and fewer resources, training and development employees have the challenging OPPORTUNITY to be more creative, manage their expenses more wisely and, in many ways, work in ways perhaps should have been considered before the economic challenges and perhaps should be considered after the economic challenges. Though I would not want these challenges to remain with us for long, I believe strongly that there is something for each of us to learn and to develop within ourselves, our teams, our organizations and our industry.

On the same forum, David Barton of Michelin North America makes this statement:

For the first time in the 13 years that I have been working with technology enabled learning in North America, our global learning and development group is seriously exploring it’s use.

Similarly Maya Frost thinks that “In A Recession, Online Education May Be A Smart Investment.”

Why? Because when people get nervous about their job security, they start looking around at their options. Many may consider taking online courses to prepare for the worst and position themselves more strategically for the next career move.

I’ll be analysing why such a broad range of people are so bullish about the e-learning industry over the next few days.

–

Now read on…

Today I’m returning to one of my occasional topics – tracking the state of the e-learning industry through the economic downturn / recession of 2008. In my first post on this topic I outlined my views on potential scenarios and described what in my view differentiated this depressed market from the post- Dot Com era. Following up on that, I presented the end-of-year financials of two of the biggest organizations in the industry, and potential difficulties they may face in 08H2.

Today, I’m investigating stakeholder sentiment (in the form of opinions from learning professionals as presented in their blogs, columns, and forums). And the question I have to ask is “Why don’t people feel that the hammer will fall (sic) on the e-learning industry this time around?”

The prevailing feeling seems to be one of optimism, and that this is in fact a time of opportunity for the industry:

Sam S. Adkins, Chief Research Officer of Ambient Insight suggests that

According to a new longitudinal study by Ambient Insight on the private investment trends in the learning technology industry, capital is flowing at the highest rate since the last recession…

• Funding in the first quarter of 2008 has reached 64% of the 2007 total and now totals more than all the investments made in the entire year of 2006
• Investment in Self-paced eLearning products designed for the corporate buying segment dominated between 1999 and 2003, but funding for these types of products has dropped dramatically in the last four years and now trails other product types
• Digital reference-ware, Collaboration-based Learning, social network-based learning (peer-generated), and learning services firms, respectively, are now attracting the largest investments
• Funding for Simulation-based Learning and Game-based Learning products, particularly virtual world platforms designed for young children, has increased significantly in 2007. This trend continues in the first quarter of 2008 and this product type is now on track to outpace investment in Self-paced eLearning

At G-Cube Solutions, Ankit Jain asserts:

…[the] growth of e-Learning is the function of two important factors. Factor Number One is the competitive cost advantage and Second Factor is the enabling qualities such as enhanced reach and learning impact.

In a ‘normal’ US economy, he predicts that

[e-learning] not only substitutes class room training but achieves better results to the learners.

Should a recession develop, he considers

Lower revenues and lower profits for US corporations certainly means cut in L&D spending. However, I have strong views that e-Learning in relative terms is likely to benefit from recessionary conditions as it is a proven cost friendly alternative to a traditional class room. … In my views the share of e-Learning hours will increase to over 40-50% from current 30% due to two factors – lowered base of number of training hours (as expected during recession) and increased share of e-Learning as such. … [the] e-Learning industry in general has a great future irrespective of US recession.

On Learning Town, Brett Andersen of The Bank of America says

With financial cutbacks come greater restrictions, such as hiring freezes, significantly lower budgets, etc. And with less money and fewer resources, training and development employees have the challenging OPPORTUNITY to be more creative, manage their expenses more wisely and, in many ways, work in ways perhaps should have been considered before the economic challenges and perhaps should be considered after the economic challenges. Though I would not want these challenges to remain with us for long, I believe strongly that there is something for each of us to learn and to develop within ourselves, our teams, our organizations and our industry.

On the same forum, David Barton of Michelin North America makes this statement:

For the first time in the 13 years that I have been working with technology enabled learning in North America, our global learning and development group is seriously exploring it’s use.

Similarly Maya Frost thinks that “In A Recession, Online Education May Be A Smart Investment.”

Why? Because when people get nervous about their job security, they start looking around at their options. Many may consider taking online courses to prepare for the worst and position themselves more strategically for the next career move.

I’ll be analysing why such a broad range of people are so bullish about the e-learning industry over the next few days.

–